Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (CLNE)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 revenue was $106.1M, up 1.1% year over year despite the expiration of AFTC ($0.0M vs $6.4M in Q3’24), and up 3.4% sequentially; Adjusted EBITDA was $17.3M, broadly flat vs Q2 and down year over year due to lower RIN pricing and no AFTC .
• Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue $106.1M vs $101.0M estimate (+5.1%, bold beat), and Primary EPS 0.00 vs -0.04 estimate (+$0.04, bold beat)*.
• Management maintained FY 2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance at $60–$65M; CFO indicated performance likely tracks to the top end or “maybe a little bit beyond” without micromanaging Q4 .
• Strategic momentum: two largest dairy RNG projects began initial operations (bringing projects in operation to eight), hydrogen station awards with Foothill Transit and others, and expanded heavy-duty RNG truck initiatives (Freightliner X15N demo, Pioneer Clean Fleet Solutions launch) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Revenue beat and volume resilience: Sold 61.3M RNG gallons (+3% YoY), and fuel sales rose to $69.9M (vs $64.1M YoY), with station construction sales also higher ($9.9M vs $7.8M) .
• Strategic wins in heavy-duty and transit: “We’ve added an X15N Freightliner Cascadia as a second demo truck… demand… has been very high,” and hydrogen station awards extend multi-decade transit partnerships .
• Upstream progress and portfolio expansion: “Our two largest dairy projects… have recently begun initial operations… This brings our total projects in operation to eight” with new Moss Energy Works projects expected to add ~3M gallons annually .

What Went Wrong

• Policy credit headwinds: LCFS prices “continue to face some headwinds impacting segment profitability,” and RIN revenue declined $2.8M YoY; absence of AFTC also hurt comparisons .
• GAAP net loss widened YoY to $(23.8)M, including $5.1M accelerated depreciation tied to pilot stations and higher Amazon warrant contra-revenue charges ($16.8M) .
• RNG volume variability across 2025 driven by weather and supply dynamics: Q1 volumes down 12.8% YoY due to cold spells; Q2 up 7.5%; Q3 up ~3%—management flagged normalization and timing effects (biogas reform flows) .

Financial Results

Q3 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus:

Values with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue sources (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

Key Q3 2025 operating KPIs and adjustments:

Guidance Changes

Management reiterated comfort with FY 2025 outlook and indicated performance likely toward the top end without providing explicit single-quarter guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “For the third quarter, we posted $106 million in revenue, sold 61 million gallons of renewable natural gas, and generated $17 million of Adjusted EBITDA” .
• “Our two largest dairy projects… have recently begun initial operations… This brings our total projects in operation to eight” .
• “We maintained our 2025 outlook, which we had raised back in August… we feel that we’re in good shape in maintaining that outlook” .
• “We can get these fleets a two-year payback… then significant savings as they keep that truck up to the typical five years” .

Q&A Highlights

• Upstream RNG ramp: Exit 2025 at ~5–6M gallons; “next year you’ll… close to doubling,” with ~20M gallons by ~2027 as Moss projects come online .
• Moss Energy Works capex: ~$35–36M this year; ~$85M total plan; $12M contributed in Q3 .
• Adoption backdrop: Freight rate weakness a headwind into 2026, but RNG economics and customer breadth (Walmart, Amazon, UPS, FedEx, SAIA, Knight-Swift, Food Express) support adoption .
• Certification timing: RINs often within weeks of operations; LCFS provisional around -150 CI, final processing could take “the better part of 2026”; ability to monetize credits not at full potential initially .
• FY guide tone: CFO indicated likely top-end of the range or “maybe a little bit beyond,” but avoided single-quarter micromanagement .

Estimates Context

• Q3 revenue beat: $106.14M actual vs $100.98M consensus (+5.1%); Primary EPS beat: $0.00 vs -$0.04 (+$0.04); coverage breadth modest (5 revenue; 4 EPS estimates)*.
• Prior quarters: Q1 revenue $103.76M vs $100.78M consensus; Primary EPS 0.01 vs -0.20; Q2 revenue $102.61M vs $99.66M consensus; Primary EPS 0.00 vs -0.058*.
  Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Revenue and EPS beats amid policy credit headwinds and AFTC expiration underline downstream strength and constructive fuel margins; station construction sales and LCFS mix helped offset RIN declines .
• FY 2025 outlook maintained at $60–$65M Adjusted EBITDA; management tone implies top-end bias without formal Q4 guidance—watch execution in Q4 fuel margins and upstream ramp .
• Upstream inflection underway: two largest dairy RNG projects in initial ops, eight projects operating, and additional Moss projects breaking ground; expect gradual contribution as certifications advance .
• Heavy-duty trucking adoption building: expanded X15N demo program (Freightliner Cascadia) and Pioneer Clean Fleet Solutions reduce barriers; fleet breadth is widening, though freight rates remain a near-term headwind .
• Credit outlook: LCFS program changes by CARB expected to tighten supply and support prices in 2026–2027; RINs stabilized near ~$2.30; 45Z rule finalization a potential upside catalyst .
• Downstream commercial momentum: new RNG agreements across refuse/transit/trucking and bulk LNG customers (USA Hauling 2.5M gal/yr; Atlantic City Jitney upgrades) support recurring volumes and services .
• Watch Amazon warrant contra-revenue and non-GAAP adjustments (accelerated depreciation) for GAAP volatility; underlying operating trends better reflected in Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS .